An agricultural economist with Advance Trading says Friday’s release of the USDA’s November supply and demand report is likely to lead to volatility in the market.
Brian Basting says a lot has happened since the last report was issued in September.
“I think that harvest, probably in that first week of September, was 5% done in corn nationwide.” He says, “Same for beans, and now we’re 80% done on corn and 90% done on beans.”
In addition to a better grasp of crop size, Basting tells Brownfield that fresh export demand data is also likely to add some volatility.
“Demand for corn is very good on the export side right now, not so good for beans.” He says, “With the absence of China, we could be looking at up to a 50% decline in September, October, and November shipments of beans in the US this fall compared to what they were a year ago.”
Basting says it’s a recipe that has many farmers looking to manage risk ahead of the report.
“Have a price floor in place for these bushels that were just harvested from 2025.” He says, “You can do that with a sale. You can do that with the purchase of a put option. You can make a deferred sale to capture some of the carry in the market. We also want to maintain flexibility though, leaving the upside open.”
The USDA’s November supply and demand report is out Friday at noon Eastern / 11 am Central.
