An agricultural policy specialist says farmers are likely to delay their planting decisions as long as possible with the current market uncertainty.
Michigan State University’s Alan Ker tells Brownfield it’s a very difficult time to advise grain farmers.
“Switching that acreage is not trivial and not costless,” he explains. “It leaves the farmer wondering, ‘Are we in a completely different regime that I need to seriously switch, or is this something that’s going to be very transitory?’ Right now, that’s just very unknown.”
Ker says sizable ad hoc economic payments can help farmers feel some level of comfort, but dramatic changes are still possible between now and the spring.
“If we didn’t have the ad hoc payments and we didn’t have the government support, I think what is grown in the ground would be very different,” he shares.
He says increased reference prices and other program updates passed through the One Big Beautiful help eliminate risk for some.
“Areas where that risk is much greater to begin with certainly benefit a lot more from that than, let’s say, the Midwest,” he says.
Southern crops like cotton, peanuts, and rice saw large safety net increases in the legislation.
Ker was one of several experts dissecting how ag policies drive farmer decisions as part of this week’s Michigan Ag Credit Conference in East Lansing.
