A marketing analyst says the latest USDA trade outlook isn’t that surprising considering how cheap U.S. grain is on the world market.
Angie Setzer is the co-founder of the grain marketing firm Consus.
“Especially as we’ve seen commodity prices fall,” she says. “Remember, even as recently as two years ago, you were looking at corn prices in the mid fives, you were looking at bean prices in the teens or at least above well above where we are now.”
On Thursday, USDA increased its estimate for U.S. exports by $1.5 billion for fiscal year 2025. Corn exports were raised by $1.5 billion, cotton was bumped by $500 million, and dairy products increased by $400 million in FY25.
Setzer says next year’s outlook still has a lot of factors in play as trade negotiations continue.
“We’ll be watching over the year ahead, do we see if Ukraine, has corn available, do we see countries like Spain come in and make purchases from the U.S. to follow through on the preferential treatment of U.S agricultural products, or anything like that,” she says. “We’ll be continuing to watch for those signs.”
USDA expects fiscal year 2026 exports to fall to $169 billion, down $4 billion from this year. Oilseeds and products make up the largest portion of that decline, along with slight reductions in corn sales, beef and veal exports, and livestock products.
USDA reduced its estimate for Chinese demand by $500 million for FY25, and $9.5 billion in FY26.
U.S. ag imports were left unchanged for fiscal year 2025, and reduced by $9.5 billion next year.
The country is still on pace for a record ag trade deficit of $47 billion this year.
