Market analyst Rich Nelson with Allendale says this is above pre-report expectations. “This does remove the prior belief that we would have lower than last year’s hog slaughter from December through May,” he says. “Now we’re looking at numbers equal to slightly higher than last year for the next few months.”
He tells Brownfield this will likely put some pressure on prices. “However, this does not stop the fact that we will have a general trend of higher prices going into summer, which always happens based on a seasonal drop in slaughter,” he says. “But this does reign back in our hopes for getting a good, aggressive rally going into summer.”
The USDA has the breeding inventory down 1 percent from last year, but production efficiency has continued to increase. “We’ve seen about a 7 percent increase in the number of piglets weaned per litter over the past six to seven years,” he says. “So even without changing the U.S. sow herd, we already are discussing a very aggressive supply picture.”
The USDA says hog producers expect 2.89 million sows to farrow between December 2025 and February 2026, a 2 percent year-over-year increase.
