The USDA has raised its 2026 corn and soybean production estimates, while trimming the outlook for wheat. The larger corn and soybean numbers followed the late June acreage adjustments by the department.
Corn is now pegged at 16 billion bushels, with soybeans at 4.475 billion bushels. The USDA left yields at 183 and 53 bushels per acre, respectively.
Winter wheat is now expected to total 990.475 million bushels, a 29% drop on the year due to drought and lower planted area, while spring wheat is seen at 475 million bushels, a decline of 4% from last year.
The USDA slashed new crop corn ending stocks 200 million bushels to 1.79 billion, largely due to greater old crop feed and residual use, which canceled out cuts to food, seed, and industrial use, all out of ethanol, and while new crop soybean ending stocks were unchanged from June at 310 million bushels, the export guess was up 30 million bushels at 1.66 billion. Old crop corn stocks came out at 2.02 billion bushels, a decrease of 125 million bushels on the month, with old crop soybeans at 330 million bushels, 10 million lower due to a slight rise for 2025/26 exports.
The average estimated farm price for 2026/27 corn is $4.40 per bushel, which is steady with a month ago and potentially up $.25 from 2025/26. The average estimated farm price for 2026/27 soybeans is $11.40 per bushel, compared to $11.40 in June and the projected $10.40 for 2025/26.
Wheat ending stocks declined 22 million bushels to 722 million on old crop demand adjustments and lower production. USDA did raise old crop feed use, while lowering seed use and exports, effectively ending the 2025/26 marketing year for wheat with a supply of 920 million bushels.
The average estimated farm price for 2026/27 wheat is $6 per bushel, steady with June and up $.94 from 2025/26.
The 2026/27 marketing year started June 1st for wheat and gets underway September 1st for beans and corn.
The USDA’s next round of supply and demand estimates is out August 12th.
