The chief market strategist with Zaner Ag Hedge says he’ll be closely watching corn demand numbers in the USDA’s next supply and demand report.
Ted Seifried tells Brownfield, “The USDA upped production by a whole lot by adding acres and by adding yield, but they also added 545 million bushels in demand total.” He says, “Only 200 of that went to exports. The extra 250 million bushels in demand that we saw in feed and residual, look at the feeder cattle market, we don’t have the animals out there to be feeding.”
He says that could mean…
“That’s a whole lot of residual.” He says, “I think that’s a cushion that the USDA built in the demand side of the balance sheet, so that if they have to lower yield, they can also lower demand and keep us around that 2-billion-bushel carryover. That’s my concern.”
Seifried says reduced ethanol export expectations are also a factor.
“Ethanol exports have been good, but in the years where our ethanol exports are really good, it’s when we’re exporting to Brazil because they’ve had a bad sugar cane crop and a bad corn crop.” He says, “This is not one of those years. And when you throw in tariffs on top of that, I just don’t see it happening.”
He says those potential adjustments, coupled with an expected large crop, currently lead to a bearish fundamental outlook for corn.
The next supply and demand report is out on Friday, September 12th.
Brownfield spoke with Seifried at the 2025 Farm Progress Show.
