Soybeans were lower on profit taking and technical selling, still ending the week with solid gains. Argentina has cut its export taxes on soybeans and products, allowing them to more aggressively market supplies. Of course, demand is one thing, supply is another, and some projections for Argentina’s soybean crop have moved lower due to weather issues. Harvest remains slower than average in parts of Brazil, but it is still fairly early in the process, with some analysts recently raising their production outlooks. U.S. export sales were up on the week at 54.8 million bushels, with China and Japan leading the way. Soybean meal fell on that Argentina news, while bean oil was up modestly on the adjustment of product spreads.
Corn was lower on profit taking and technical selling, while closing modestly higher for the week. Contracts are overbought, and Argentina also lowered its export tax on corn. Similar to soybeans, any substantial increase in Argentina’s corn exports will probably be more linked to supply than demand. Argentina’s corn crop rating is falling and soybean harvest delays in Brazil could impact second crop acreage. The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production numbers are out February 11th, with CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil slated for the 13th. U.S. corn export sales were above a week ago at 65.4 million bushels, primarily to South Korea and Taiwan, but with a cancelation by unknown destinations. There were a handful of 2025/26 sales as well to Mexico, Japan, and China. The USDA’s attaché for Mexico pegs 2024/25 corn production at 23.3 million tons, compared to 23.5 million in 2023/24, with imports this marketing year at 25 million tons, compared to 24.759 million last marketing year.
The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling, but the most active months did manage good week-to-week finishes. Argentina also reduced its wheat export tax, potentially improving its export market share. Russia’s grain export cap goes into effect next month and Ukraine’s wheat exports have slowed down, with questions about how much of that will be picked up by the U.S. A significant portion of that is expected to be filled by Argentina and Australia. U.S. export sales of 6.1 million bushels were down on the week, with Mexico and Japan taking the top slots. 2025/26 sales were mostly to the Philippines and Japan. The USDA’s attaché for Mexico sees 2024/25 production at 2.64 million tons, compared to 3.476 million last marketing year due to drought in some key growing areas. That’s expected to lead to a modest increase in imports.
