An ag marketing economist says a data processing error in the USDA’s September 2026 crop production report doesn’t have a market impact but it complicates a trust rebuild.
“It takes 30 days to find a problem in a NASS estimate going backwards to September and it takes the industry to point it out to them,” says Dan Basse with Ag Resource Company. “I would hope we find these errors much sooner, in fact, before these reports are released. I’d hoped there was a structure for that to happen. In this case, there wasn’t and credibility is the probem.”
Late on Friday, the USDA’s National Ag Statistics Service said it found a data processing error that impacted its September 2026 corn estimates. The agency said it impacted corn estimates in Kansas and Nebraska as well as some national estimates and has corrected those numbers. Basse says it’s likely USDA’s estimate was too low.
“As they adjust ear numbers back in Nebraska on irrigated or not.”
Over the weekend, the USDA said the error affected September corn plant populations, ear counts, and yield forecasts. The corrected yields are 119 bushels per acre in Kansas, 182 in Nebraska, and 178.8 nationally. USDA has updated its crop production reports and Quick Stats.
NASS said it has also reviewed and validated the October 9 forecasts and the numbers haven’t changed.
Moving forward USDA says it will implement additional pre-publication checks to verify acreage weights and validate objective yield calculations. USDA is evaluating further improvements.
