USApples is forecasting a smaller crop this year following a once-in-a-generation freeze that hit the Eastern U.S.
Vice President, Insights & Analytics Chris Gerlach tells Brownfield a three-day freeze stretching from the Great Lakes to North Carolina reduced total production by about seven percent.
“Not only will the total crop size be down, but they expect the pack out, that is the ratio of apples that go to the fresh market versus the processing market, to be reversed,” he says. “They expect the ratio to be where it is typically 50-50 in those states to be closer to 60-40.”
He says exports are especially important for growers as domestic demand has remained flat for fresh apples in recent years.
“We’ve got some trade tensions going on right now with Canada,” he says. “Canada and Mexico account for over 50% of our fresh apple exports, so we need to keep the USMCA working and these 338 tariffs at bay.”
Gerlach says disputes with Canada over the past year have already cost U.S. growers $5.7 million in lost sales. The industry is also still recovering from the loss of India as the second-largest market following U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs in 2018.
With production down, Gerlack says growers should see higher prices for the apples they harvest.
