A pair of ag experts say Brazil’s ongoing crop expansion could impact the value of U.S. soybeans in 2026.
Joana Colussi, assistant professor at Purdue University, says the country is expected to produce another record soybean crop this year.
“There is a forecast that Brazil could reach over 6.5 billion bushels in this crop season,” she says. “Even though farmers are going to increase their corn production a little bit in area, there is an expectation that corn production will decrease compared to last year’s record.”
The USDA’s latest supply and demand report was above pre-report expectations with the U.S. producing 4.262 billion bushels of soybeans in 2025.
Bryan Doherty with Total Farm Marketing says global market competition is limiting price potential.
“For the buyer, whether it’s China or somebody else, they’ve got a dual pipeline of beans available to them,” he says. “I’m concerned you’re not going to see bullish markets until weather becomes a factor.”
Colussi says Brazil’s expanded export volumes are giving buyers flexibility. But, “For 2026, there is an expectation that Brazil will decrease its exports to China. Agriculture will continue growing, just not at the same speed as it has in the past due to their financial situation.”
CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil’s crop is set for Thursday, January 15th
