AUDIO: Xander Lowry – Aura Commodities
A meteorologist with Aura Commodities says the U.S. could start to see a shift to an El Nino weather pattern as soon as next month.
“By the time you get into the summer, we could have that El Nino effect full on. That typically means a bit of a wetter risk, also a bit of a cooler risk.”
Xander Lowry tells Brownfield, “Some of the recent model forecasts have, by the time we get to May, June, July, probabilities of an El Nino at 75 to 80%.” He says, “Where the uncertainty comes in is, how strong does the El Nino actually get?”
He says warming waters in the central Pacific usually bode well for Midwestern farmers.
“2015, that was kind of the last super El Nino, but 2023 was a moderate to strong El Nino.” He says, “1997 would be another example. And in those years, you ended up having relatively okay moisture levels throughout the summer.”
Lowry says a moderate to strong El Nino pattern typically leads to trend line or above yields in the Corn Belt.
